ITC Ltd. (ITC)
Consumer Staples
Reduce / Avoid
ITC Ltd. (ITC, Consumer Staples) last closed at ₹269.15 and is down 7.8% over the past 3 months (down 33.6% over 1 year). Downtrend — trading below both its 50-day and 200-day averages. Annualized volatility is 18.5%, against a trailing CAGR of -18.7%. Extending the recent trend line, the model projects roughly down 17.6% over the next ~6 months if the pattern holds. Composite score 25/100 → Reduce / Avoid. This is a trend read on historical prices, not a guarantee.
Last close
₹269.15
1-month change
-5.8%
3-month change
-7.8%
1-year change
-33.6%
Trailing CAGR
-18.7%
Annualized volatility
+18.5%
50-day average
₹282.77
200-day average
₹320.50
~6-month projection
-17.6%
Composite score
25/100
Future potential
What could move ITC from here — general strategic context plus signals from the price trend above.
Could push the price up
- Non-cigarette FMCG business scaling toward better margins
- Hotels business demerger unlocking standalone value
- Agri-business and paperboard/packaging diversification
- Resilient cigarette cash flows funding new growth bets
Could weigh the price down
- Punitive tobacco taxation (GST/excise hikes) risk
- Illicit/duty-evaded cigarette trade eating into market share
- FMCG margin expansion has been gradual, not guaranteed
- ESG and regulatory pressure on tobacco products
- Trading below both its 50- and 200-day averages — a bearish technical backdrop until reclaimed.
- Down -33.6% over the past year — sentiment has been weak.
- Recent momentum is weak — short-term price action has been soft.
- Trailing CAGR is negative (-18.7%) — the multi-year trend has been a drag, not a tailwind.
General strategic context based on the company's known business profile — not real-time news or analyst commentary. Always check the company's latest announcements before investing.
Recent closes
| Date | Close | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | ₹294.70 | 22,179,022 |
| 2026-03-25 | ₹295.70 | 26,184,716 |
| 2026-03-24 | ₹291.25 | 33,335,721 |
| 2026-03-23 | ₹290.45 | 31,788,160 |
| 2026-03-20 | ₹299.95 | 58,679,529 |
| 2026-03-19 | ₹298.00 | 17,851,126 |
| 2026-03-18 | ₹304.05 | 16,702,554 |
| 2026-03-17 | ₹304.85 | 25,649,286 |
| 2026-03-16 | ₹308.25 | 37,472,204 |
| 2026-03-13 | ₹301.45 | 25,659,996 |
| 2026-03-12 | ₹304.10 | 23,319,679 |
| 2026-03-11 | ₹309.00 | 14,842,485 |
| 2026-03-10 | ₹309.05 | 18,352,950 |
| 2026-03-09 | ₹306.00 | 14,084,931 |
| 2026-03-06 | ₹309.70 | 21,288,269 |
This is a trend read on historical prices (momentum, moving averages, volatility, a linear projection of the recent trend) — not a guarantee of future performance. Educational analysis, not financial advice.